Dueling polls worrisome to trio
Team Flake — John McCain, Jon Kyl and Jeff Flake — crisscrossed the state Saturday, going from an early breakfast in Fountain Hills to Prescott and then to a town hall meeting in Yuma, as Arizona’s senior senators joined Jeff Flake on the campaign trail. Flake is vying for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Jon Kyl.
The senate race has remained consistently tight as six-term Republican congressman Jeff Flake and former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona, a former registered Independent, newly-minted as a Democrat recruited by Barack Obama, continue to duke it out.
The senators are vigorously trying to undo the damage of this ad featuring them both in 2002, in which they gave Carmona high praise during confirmation hearings for his appointment as U.S. Surgeon General.
Polling numbers are all over the map. Real Clear Politics showing Likely Voter polling gives Flake a slim +0.7 overall advantage in this exceedingly close race.
Left-leaners Behavior Research Center give Carmona a 4-point edge and Public Policy Polling shows Carmona up by 2. Last month, Channel 3 reported on polling numbers that showed Carmona holding a 5-point edge over Flake
As might be expected in this Harstad survey conducted for the Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), and completed October 9, the numbers show a 4-point lead for Carmona. The takeaway from the far-left pollsters is that Carmona performs much better among Democrats (ahead 84% to 7%) than Flake does among Republicans (leading 73% to 17%) and Carmona runs far ahead with a 51% to 38% lead among registered Independents.
Within hours after the DSCC poll came out, Flake’s campaign released its own internal polling, showing the opposite outcome. In that survey, Flake led Carmona by 6 points, with 49% support to Carmona’s 43%.
The final numbers will be Nov. 6 as the election tabulation tells the tale. Stay tuned.