Tight AZ Senate race takes McKyl, Flake statewide

Dueling polls worrisome to trio

Team Flake — John McCain, Jon Kyl and Jeff Flake — crisscrossed the state Saturday, going from an early breakfast in Fountain Hills to Prescott and then to a town hall meeting in Yuma, as Arizona’s senior senators joined Jeff Flake on the campaign trail. Flake is vying for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Jon Kyl.

The senate race has remained consistently tight as six-term Republican congressman Jeff Flake and former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona, a former registered Independent, newly-minted as a Democrat recruited by Barack Obama, continue to duke it out.

The senators are vigorously trying to undo the damage of this ad featuring them both in 2002, in which they gave Carmona high praise during confirmation hearings for his appointment as U.S. Surgeon General.

Polling numbers are all over the map. Real Clear Politics showing Likely Voter polling gives Flake a slim +0.7 overall advantage in this exceedingly close race.

Rasmussen shows Flake up by 6. High Ground/Moore gives Flake a 3-point lead.

Left-leaners Behavior Research Center give Carmona a 4-point edge and Public Policy Polling shows Carmona up by 2.  Last month, Channel 3 reported on polling numbers that showed Carmona holding a 5-point edge over Flake

As might be expected in this Harstad survey conducted for the Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), and completed October 9, the numbers show a 4-point lead for Carmona. The takeaway from the far-left pollsters is that Carmona performs much better among Democrats (ahead 84% to 7%) than Flake does among Republicans (leading 73% to 17%) and Carmona runs far ahead with a 51% to 38% lead among registered Independents.

Within hours after the DSCC poll came out, Flake’s campaign released its own internal polling, showing the opposite outcome. In that survey, Flake led Carmona by 6 points, with 49% support to Carmona’s 43%.

The final numbers will be Nov. 6 as the election tabulation tells the tale. Stay tuned.

25 Responses to Tight AZ Senate race takes McKyl, Flake statewide

  1. State Committeeman says:

    The real takeaway from all of this is that the flushable Johns are so intent on exhibiting political correctness that they rushed to be out in front lauding Richard Carmona. If he were not Hispanic and his name was Bill Smith, does anyone really believe they would have been so smitten? Now they have to eat their words. I think it’s laughable.

  2. Annie O. says:

    Carmona is pro abortion, so he now claims. Wonder if this question even came up when supposedly strong pro-lifers Bush and McKyls were lauding him in 2002? And previously this year, the McKyls voted for extreme pro abortion Judge Hurwitz for the Ninth Circus. I believe they are showing their “true colors”, and still CAP lauds them?!?

    • Facts Speak Volumes says:

      Excellent point, Annie. Both Center for Arizona Policy AND Arizona Right to Life go where the political celebrity status resides. That’s where the high dollar funding comes from. I’ll go you a step further…I blame George W. Bush for Carmona. I suspect somewhere in the entire USA there was a qualified MD of Hispanic origin who was a REPUBLICAN!! Had it not been for Dubya promoting Dr. Carmona to national prominence, no one would know his name. Republicans sure have a knack for screwing themselves over!

  3. Sgt. Flapjaw says:

    In any outcome these three phonies should come out of it embarrassed. If Flake wins we can wait til next time and get rid of him……Maybe.

  4. eubykdisop says:

    I think that Flake is going to get voted to the private sector. Why?

    Carmona’s resume and biography clean Flake’s clock. Flake isn’t in Carmona’s league in those regards.

    A deciding issue between a Democrat and a Republican could be illegal immigration. In this case, however, Flake has a very clear record of actively supporting and promoting the Democrat position! Flake co-authored, along with Chicago “progressive” Democrat Luis Gutierrez, The STRIVE Act illegal alien amnesty legislation which included in it Harry Reid’s DREAM Act! So Flake can’t make the case that he is any different from Carmona regarding immigration issues. At best, it’s a wash.

    Carmona is a combat veteran and has decades of law enforcement experience. That kind of first hand knowledege and experience is priceless in a U. S. Seantor. Flake has neither military nor law enforcement experience. On top of that, Carmona is an experienced physician and surgeon. Flake doesn’t have any medical expertise whatsoever!

    Flake has a track record in the House which is not sterling! He has often been at odds with his own fellow Republicans, so much so that he was booted off of his postion on the House Judiciary Committee for “bad behavior”! So Flake is not only not Conservative but he hasn’t even been a good Republican!

    The “take back the Senate” cheer rings hollow because the RNC refuses to back Akin against McCaskill in Missouri! If they were serious about taking back the Senate, they would at least give Akin some money but they refuse to give him one cent! In addition, Romney is going to take the White House so taking the Senate is somewhat less important. When Obama goes so do Eric Holder, Janet Napolitano and a host of other ne’er-do-wells who have been doing the actual dirty work of tearing down America.

    So despite all of the noise, spin and hype, things aren’t looking good for the Flakester!

  5. CD9 says:

    I do not care what Carmona is supposedly, we know what McFlake is. The trio of Liars betrayed us, we need to get rid of Flake now, it will be harder in six years, and like McCain we have another career politician who has done nothing in his life but feed off the trough of Government, he might as well be on welfare.

    • eubykdisop says:

      Now, now, CD9! Flake DID “work” as a lobbyist for Rossing Uranium. Of course, Rossing is majority owned by a British corporation, the same British corporation which owns the majority of Resolution Copper which was the beneficiary of the Arizona land swap deal which Flake promoted and voted for!

  6. AZ Conservative Guy says:

    Those of us who have been around awhile remember the two showing up in 2004 to endorse the candidacy of Andrew Pacheco for County Attorney and McCain even endorsed Ephram Cordova in a relatively insignificant Glendale City Council race. McCain’s endorsement record leaves a lot to be desired. His picks lost….even the city council candidate!!

    Kirk Adams and Ben Quayle both lost in the recent the Congressional primary with both McCain and Kyl’s support. Their track record in legislative district races has been nothing to write home about.

    But the best indicator of McCain’s lack of sway was as Republic Party elected precinct committeemen dismissed his enthusiastic endorsement of Jerry Brooks in the 2009 Maricopa County Republican chairman race and even he lost! McCain’s nemesis Rob Haney won by a wide margin. In 2011, Haney repeated that win by an even wider margin, trouncing the McCain and Kyl establishment choice Bill Cheatham.

    These guys are well known to us now and what we know, we distrust.

  7. CD9 says:

    I saw Rob and Marne yesterday, they both looked great, while the old goat looks deader than dead. Please retire and leave us alone. But if Jan appoints herself Senator if he resigns before his term is up, please remember all she did was sign 1070 and nothing else. There will be a good Conservative out there somewhere.

  8. Joe M. says:

    I’m not a huge Jeff Flake fan, but the country cannot afford this seat to be ceded to a Dem, especially now. Jeff Flake will vote to repeal Obamacare, Richard Carmona will not. If Obamacare is not repealed, then that is ballgame for the Dems. This cannot be stated enough.

    It is looking increasingly likely that Obama will lose. There will be at least one or two SCOTUS appointments to the next President. This country needs solid conservative justices appointed, and confirmed by the Senate. As much as I disagree with Flake on certain issues, I will vote for him.

    • eubykdisop says:

      How is it, Joe, that “this seat” cannot be ceded to a Dem but that the RNC won’t do a thing to help Akin in Missouri? They refuse to give him one cent in his run against the most vulnerable Dem in the Senate, Claire McCaskill!

      I respectfully disagree with your assessment of the importance of this seat going to a “Republican”. Why?

      First of all, it’s Romney who is going to be the “game changer”. How is that? When Obama goes so do Eric Holder, Janet Napolitano and a host of other bad news Liberals. As you mentioned, Romney will nominate to SCOTUS. Lastly, all of the “end runs” which Obama has been doing around Congress will cease. That includes dropping the defense of DOMA, illegal implementation of the DREAM Act and making a “recess” appointment while Congress is in session.

      Lastly, Flake has proven himself to be unreliable when it comes to voting in line with his fellow Republicans on important issues. That is part of why he was removed from his assignment to the House Judiciary Committee by the Republican leadership for “bad behavior”.

      Here you can see Flake attempting to convince Lou Dobbs and fellow Republican Congressman Brian Bilbray that his STRIVE Act is not illegal alien amnesty:

      It was Flake’s fellow Republicans who killed his STRIVE Act by making certain that it never came to a vote!

      • Kingman GOP PC says:

        Thank you for finding this video!!
        Now I see why so many people I talk to in my role as a Precinct Committeeman, distrust this slickster, Flake. My wife and I will vote our ballots today, and Jeff Flake will not get our votes. What a smug, scarier and younger version of John McCain. I could puke watching this perpetually grinning phony! I very much appreciate having the opportunity to see this shocking video.

        Lou Dobbs and Congressman Brian Bilbray both succeeded in making Jeff Flake look like the snickering fool he is. I am sorry to admit that in pushing the GOP ticket, I’ve been including him. No more. I intend to contact some of my neighbors today and tell them what I saw here. In fact, I’ll be sending this link out to many friends and relatives today.

      • ZOO says:

        @Kingman GOP PC: How did you miss the millions of dollars of Wil Cardon TV spots talking about pro-illegal/pro-amnesty Jeff Flake?

      • eubykdisop says:

        You’re most welcome, Kingman GOP PC! And thank you to “Seeing Red AZ” for permitting the video to be linked here.

        I am interested only in the truth and it is the truth, even Flake’s own words, which tells the story of why Flake is unfit to serve as U. S. Senator from Arizona.

    • CD9 says:

      OMG, am I wrong on this, in 2010 Scott Brown was elected to repalce the MURDERER Kennedy, but Harry got the bill passed anyway with 51 votes. He made it a finace bill, so we only need 51 to repeal it. We will have that many without FLAKE THE AMNESTY, CAP AND TRADE PROMOTER. Flake needs to go, he and the other two have betrayed us, like Clint has said they work for us, Flake refused to do what 80% of his constituients wanted and drop his “Strive act” or Amnesty House version.

  9. Nangirl says:

    AZ has highest unemployment numbers in US, and AZ residents are on the fence between conservative, Flake and Obama-backed, Carmona ? What is there to think about ? Hello ?

    • Facts Speak Volumes says:

      Nangirl:
      How about getting your facts straight if you want to be considered credible?
      These are the most up-to-date national unemployment figures as of this month:
      Nevada (11.8%), Rhode Island (10.5%), Californian (10.2%), New Jersey (9.8%), North Carolina (9.6%), Michigan (9.3%),Mississippi (9.2%), South Carolina (9.1%), Georgia (9.0%),
      There are several states between 8.9% and 8.3%. ARIZONA is #30 on the list of 50 states and has 8.2%. North Dakota has a 3.0% rate of unemployment.

      The Source for these numbers is the US Bureau of Labor Statistics — an Obama Department with liberal Hilda Solis at the helm. I don’t believe them anymore than I believe you. But lies do not make your case.
      http://money.cnn.com/interactive/economy/state-unemployment-rates/

      McCain and Kyl have long supported liberals and their plans, ranging from global warming to campaign finance reform, appointments of liberal federal judges and giving their approval to the confirmation of US AG Eric Holder, and Homeland Insecurity head Napolitano. What’s the difference between them and any Democrat? I’d just as soon get screwed over by a Democrat than a impostor posing as a Republican. At least i’d know what to expect. With Jeff Flake, I know what to expect. He even took a powder on Cap and Trade!! He is younger than Carmona and will be there longer. He lied about term limiting himself. I believe NOTHING from this farce.

      • CD9 says:

        Facts, you said it better than me. We know what to expect from a LYING THIEF DEMOCRAT, but when we get a so-called Republican who does the same thing then comes home and tells us how great he is in taking care of us but he got rid of ear marks. Do you know where the money goes that he got rid of, right into the :Presidential coffers for BHO to spend how he wants on projects like Solyndra.

  10. Night Owl says:

    For me this is simply a matter of applying reason. I am a conservative. Not all Republicans are conservative. In fact, some Republicans are liberals, who know they have to have an ‘R‘ after their name in order to win in certain districts.

    I will be voting for Mitt Romney. I will not be voting for Jeff Flake. Romney is not as conservative as I am, but he’s far better than McCain was and Flake is an acknowledged liar. I have made a vow to stop holding my nose as I cast my ballot.

    I’m not alone. Conservatives I talk to are fed up with being deceived.

  11. Persible says:

    Ok, so if Flake loses we can all blame the conservatives.

    • East Valley PC says:

      Not at all. If Flake loses, the blame falls squarely on Flake himself.

      For far too long, he has disappointed the conservatives you would like to hold responsible. Unfortunately, too many in his old congressional district, have never dug deeper than his “earmark” rhetoric. They are blissfully unaware of his unsavory associations, and positions he takes in DC. They are taken in, instead, by his grins and glibness. The East Valley is his Eden. I’ve lived my entire life in this area. I know Jeff Flake. I’m a conservative. He will not get my vote.

    • eubykdisop says:

      If Flake loses, I would be more than happy to take credit for it! That would be one RINO down!

  12. Persible says:

    Wait now, you’ll not only credit conservatives for a Carmona win, but also criticize voters in Flake’s old district who elected him six times to Congress?

    I understand if you want to express your personal issues, but I’m talking about Flake being the right guy to be representing like 6 million people in our state.

    • eubykdisop says:

      I’m glad you brought that up, Persible!

      As a Congressman, Flake is supposed to represent the interests of those in his congressional district. A U. S. Senator is supposed to represent the interests of all of the people of the State of Arizona.

      There are a great many LDS Chruch constituents in Flake’s congressional district and he has done an excellent job of reflecting the positions of the LDS Chruch on issues like illegal immigration. That, however, isn’t going to cut it statewide!

      Flake’s support for illegal alien amnesty is not supported by the majority of the voters of Arizona. There’s no question about that. In addition, Flake has done some things which raise serious questions about whose interests he is actually representing! Let me give you an example.

      Flake promoted and voted for legislation empowering an Arizona land swap deal between Resolution Copper and the federal government. Resolution wanted the federal land so it could mine the copper deposits there. That land swap legislation passed one month after the LDS Church in Utah did a land swaps deal with a mining company. So what?

      The LDS Church in Utah swapped Church owned land with land owned by Kennecott Utah Copper, a wholly owned subsidiary of Rio Tinto, a British corporation. Resolution Copper, the beneficiary of the Arizona land swap deal, is 55% owned by… Rio Tinto! How did Rio Tinto benefit from the Arizona land swap?

      Had Resolution Copper extracted minerals from federally owned land it would have had to pay royalties to the U. S. federal government. By owning the land outright, it doesn’t have to pay any royalites. How much is it estimated that Resolution Copper would have had to pay in royalites? $7 billion! That means that Rio Tinto saved $3,850,000,000 in royalties which go directly to it’s bottom line profits! What does Rio Tinto mean to the economy of Utah?

      “•Total in-state spending by combined Rio Tinto and Kennecott business units in 2011 was $1.2 billion, which included $270 million in wages, salaries, benefits and pensions, $765 million in purchases with Utah firms and $140 million in payments to state and local government (including taxes).
      •We directly employed 2,810 people and indirectly employed 14,971 people for a total of 17,781 jobs in 2011.
      •More than 27,000 Utahns — or about 8,800 households — were sustained because of the $1.2 billion of in-state spending by Rio Tinto and Kennecott business units in 2011.”

      Is it credible to believe that these two land swap deals, one in Utah by the LDS Church and one here in Arizona, were brought to fruition within a month of each other by accident? Is it credible to believe that it is coincidental that Rio Tinto is the primary beneficiary of both land swap deals? Was Flake thinking about the interests of the U. S. and the people of Arizona when he promoted and voted for the Resolution Copper legislation or was he helping to shore up Rio Tinto because of it’s importance to Utah and the LDS Church members who reside there?

      In 1991 and 1992, Flake worked as a lobbyist for Rossing Uranium. Rio Tinto owns 69% of Rossing Uranium! Ain’t that something, LOL!